These Economies Will Dominate The World In 2050

“The World in 2050,” a new report by HSBC economist Karen Ward, forecasts the economic prowess of the 100 largest economies. Of interest in her report is where each happens to fall, and how income per capita will grow in a number of emerging markets.

Key notes we’ve already taken away: Italy will no longer be in the top ten and the U.S., as you’ve likely guessed, is no longer number one.

#50: Portugal

#50: Portugal

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $336 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $35,863

Detail: Even as Portugal’s economy nearly triples, the country will see the ranking of its economy by size fall 10 places. HSBC forecasts population declines of 18%.

Source: HSBC

#49: Czech Republic

#49: Czech Republic

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $342 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $32,153

Detail: Income per capita in the Czech Republic will largely follow growth rates of the entire Central and Eastern European market, staying above 4% for the next 30 years.

Source: HSBC

#48: Norway

#48: Norway

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $352 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $59,234

Detail: Norway will drop the greatest among the top 50 economies, falling 22 spaces as its economy grows at a slow but steady rate. Still, its income per capita will rank it among the top ten in the world.

Source: HSBC

#47: United Arab Emirates

#47: United Arab Emirates

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $360 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $29,651

Detail: The United Arab Emirates will see relatively average growth over the coming 40 years, with its population expanding by 4 million and income per capita increasing by about $4,000.

Source: HSBC

#46: Romania

#46: Romania

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $377 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $20,357

Detail: Romania, a large textile producer, will see its economy expand nearly ten-fold, averaging income per capita growth of 5.7% over the 40 years.

Source: HSBC

#45: Ireland

#45: Ireland

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $386 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $61,363

Detail: Even as Ireland faces tremendous issues currently, small population growth, coupled with relatively upbeat GDP growth, will translate into a huge gain in income per capita.

Source: HSBC

#44: Israel

#44: Israel

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $402 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $37,731

Detail: The small country will see a population boom of +40% to nearly 11 million by 2050.

Source: HSBC

#43: Greece

#43: Greece

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $424 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $38,756

Detail: After extensive delevering, painful austerity measures, and political strife, HSBC forecasts Greece will see its economy gain speed through 2050.

Source: HSBC

#42: Singapore

#42: Singapore

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $441 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $84,405

Detail: Singapore’s population will remain stagnant over the next 40 years, as it grapples with little land for expansion. However, its income per capita will swell to the highest among top 50 nations — and second overall.

Source: HSBC

#41: Vietnam

#41: Vietnam

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $451 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $4,335

Detail: Vietnam, like many of its rapid growing neighbors, will see strong economic expansion during the coming 40 years, with GDP growth expected to top 5% per annum.

Source: HSBC

#40: Ukraine

#40: Ukraine

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $462 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $12,818

Detail: HSBC notes that the Ukraine will see strong growth because of advances in its education system and rule of law, even as its population contracts.

Source: HSBC

#39: Belgium

#39: Belgium

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $481 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $41,842

Detail: Belgium, like many European nations, will see its economy fall in relative size, even as it expands at a stable pace. The country’s population is expected to remain near 11 million over the time frame.

Source: HSBC

#38: Sweden

#38: Sweden

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $507 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $47,941

Detail: Sweden will grow at a slower pace than Belgium, although total GDP in Sweden will still remain larger. The population in the Scandinavian country is expected to grow by two million.

Source: HSBC

#37: Nigeria

#37: Nigeria

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $515 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $1,323

Detail: Nigeria’s swelling population, which will be about 14 million less than the United States’ population in 2050, will help contribute to the country’s ascension. Income per capita will still remain painfully low, ranking it 98th out of the top 100.

Source: HSBC

#36: Austria

#36: Austria

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $520 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $61,124

Detail: A slightly growing population, coupled with stable GDP growth will boost income per capita by more than $30,000.

Source: HSBC

#35: South Africa

#35: South Africa

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $529 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $9,308

Detail: An additional seven million people and a near tripling of income per capita will help the economy expand. Of the nine countries in Africa on the complete list of 100, South Africa will have the smallest increase in the size of its labor pool.

Source: HSBC

#34: Algeria

#34: Algeria

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $538 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $11,566

Detail: Algeria’s economy is expected to grow to over $525 billion in size, from about $76 billion today. A 34% population increase will help that along.

Source: HSBC

#33: Venezuela

#33: Venezuela

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $558 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $13,268

Detail: Venezuela will see its population grow by 44%, and jump two spots in this year’s list. It’s also the first of six Latin American countries to crack the top 50.

Source: HSBC

#32: Chile

#32: Chile

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $592 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $29,513

Detail: Commodity exports will continue to be a boon for Chile, which HSBC has labeled a growth country. However, the country has the second-lowest fertility rate in Latin America (behind Cuba), meaning production per capita will need the fuel to charge higher.

Source: HSBC

#31: Bangladesh

#31: Bangladesh

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $673 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $3,461

Detail: Bangladesh will jump more than 17 spots as its economy expands over the coming 40 years.

Source: HSBC

#31: Pakistan

#31: Pakistan

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $675 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $2,455

Detail: Though Pakistan has recently been at odds with the U.S., the country remains one of its largest trading partners. Pakistan is a strong textile producer.

Source: HSBC

#29: Switzerland

#29: Switzerland

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $711 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $83,559

Detail: Switzerland’s economic importance will diminish over the coming years, according to HSBC. That said, the country will experience one of the highest incomes per capita.

Source: HSBC

#28: Colombia

#28: Colombia

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $725 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $11,530

Detail: Colombia may be hindered by its below average length of schooling, which comes in at about 7.7 years. However, the country will benefit from much lower inflation compared to peer countries in Latin America.

Source: HSBC

#27: Iran

#27: Iran

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $732 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $7,547

Detail: Iran’s economy will gain significant traction over the next forty years, but its income per capita will decline 9 spots.

Source: HSBC

#26: Peru

#26: Peru

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $735 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $18,940

Detail: Peru will likely emerge into the spotlight in Latin America, as its annual growth tops nearly all peers in the region. HSBC estimates that income per capita will grow at the second-fastest rate in Central and Southern America, behind only Bolivia.

Source: HSBC

#25: Poland

#25: Poland

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $786 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $24,547

Detail: An average education system along with a moderate fertility rate, will keep Poland in roughly the same rank in 2050 as it was in 2010.

Source: HSBC

#24: Netherlands

#24: Netherlands

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $798 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $45,839

Detail: With stable growth, the Netherlands will look much like it does today in forty years. HSBC estimates the country’s population will remain stagnant and its relative standard of living will rank it in the teens, just as it did in 2010.

Source: HSBC

#23: Thailand

#23: Thailand

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $856 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $11,674

Detail: Thailand will suffer slightly from a lower percentage of its population remaining in the workforce, as it ages and its fertility rate remaining below the Asian average.

Source: HSBC

#22: Saudi Arabia

#22: Saudi Arabia

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.1 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $25,845

Detail: The oil-producing nation is the first of 22 countries to top the $1 trillion GDP mark. However, its standard of living is expected to take a hit as its income per capita falls nine spots, from 34 to 43.

Source: HSBC

#21: Malaysia

#21: Malaysia

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.2 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $29,247

Detail: The electronic equipment, petroleum, and liquefied natural gas producer will see a substantial increase in income per capita. Malaysian life expectancy, relatively high level of schooling, and above average fertility rate will help in its rapid expansion.

Source: HSBC

#20: Egypt

#20: Egypt

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.2 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $8,996

Detail: An incredibly growing population which will top 130 million people will propel Egypt 15 spots into the top 20. Egypt will also rank as the largest African economy in 2050.

Source: HSBC

#19: Argentina

#19: Argentina

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.5 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $29,001

Detail: Argentina has faced hyper-inflation and closed-off capital markets after it defaulted on debt years ago. However, the country looks like a growth nation to HSBC for its strong natural resource portfolio.

Source: HSBC

#18: Australia

#18: Australia

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.5 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $51,523

Detail: Australia will report relatively tame growth if HSBC is correct. The country’s population growth, along with strong education systems and capital markets, will allow it to remain in the top tier of income per capita rankings.

Source: HSBC

#17: Indonesia

#17: Indonesia

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.5 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $5,215

Detail: Even as Indonesia sees strong economic growth, income per capita will remain in the same 85th place ranking.

Source: HSBC

#16: Philippines

#16: Philippines

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.7 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $10,893

Detail: Unlike Indonesia, peer Philippines will make meaningful progress increasing income per capita, advancing more than 10 spots. Add that to a population with 62 million more people, and GDP will increase by a factor of 15.

Source: HSBC

#15: Russia

#15: Russia

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.9 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $16,174

Detail: The first BRIC on the list (expect to see the next three pretty soon), Russia will see its population decline by more than 1% per annum. Nonetheless, it will continue to post high steady growth, HSBC estimates.

Source: HSBC

#14: Spain

#14: Spain

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $2.0 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $38,111

Detail: Like many European peers, Spain will maintain a strong income per capita, although not advance much further. The country’s population will expand by some six million.

Source: HSBC

#13: South Korea

#13: South Korea

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $2.1 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $46,657

Detail: South Korea’s total population will decline over the next forty years, but strong increases in individual contributions to GDP will keep the country in the top 20.

Source: HSBC

#12: Turkey

#12: Turkey

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $2.1 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $22,063

Detail: Turkey will advance six spots from 2010 to 2050. However, it will still be hindered by the lowest average male education in central and eastern Europe, at 7 years.

Source: HSBC

#11: Italy

#11: Italy

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $2.2 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $38,445

Detail: The country, currently under incredible stress as the debt crisis in Europe mounts, will drop out of the top ten largest economies by 2050 as its population declines and personal incomes grow at a lower rate than other expanding nations.

Source: HSBC

#10: Canada

#10: Canada

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $2.3 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $51,485

Detail: Canada will claim title to the last rung on the top ten, with its economy ranked tenth in size in both 2010 and 2050. HSBC estimates the country’s population will swell to 44 million.

Source: HSBC

#9: France

#9: France

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $2.8 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $40,643

Detail: Although the French economy will continue to grow over the next four decades, the percentage of the population at work will decline. France is the first of three Eurozone countries to break into the top ten.

Source: HSBC

#8: Mexico

#8: Mexico

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $2.8 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $21,793

Detail: Current troubles plaguing Mexico will not keep the country from posting impressive growth. HSBC estimates that, while adding fewer than 15% more new citizens, its GDP will more than quadruple.

Source: HSBC

#7: Brazil

#7: Brazil

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $3.0 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $13,547

Detail: More than 200 million people will call Brazil home by 2050, and their standard of living will be significantly improved from 2010. Income per capita will nearly triple over those 40 years. Brazil will also be the largest economy in Latin America.

Source: HSBC

#6: United Kingdom

#6: United Kingdom

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $3.6 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $49,412

Detail: The United Kingdom is expected to grow by more than 10 million people over the next half century, helping double the size of the economy.

Source: HSBC

#5: Germany

#5: Germany

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $3.7 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $52,683

Detail: Germany’s economy will remain the largest in Europe, out-producing the U.K. even though the two nations will have virtually the same population size. However, the number of people living in Germany is expected to tumble by 24% as the U.K. grows.

Source: HSBC

#4: Japan

#4: Japan

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $6.4 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $63,244

Detail: Japan’s population will decline markedly over the next 50 years, but its economy will still grow by $1.4 trillion. Together, income per capita will rise ever higher — ranking fourth in the world.

Source: HSBC

#3: India

#3: India

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $8.1 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $5,060

Detail: India’s economy will have skyrocketed by 2050, growing from $960 billion to more than $8 trillion. The country will also add 400 million more people to its population over the next half century.

Source: HSBC

#2: United States of America

#2: United States of America

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $22.3 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $55,134

Detail: Even though the U.S. is no longer number one, the size of its economy will have doubled while adding roughly 90 million people to its population.

Source: HSBC

#1: China

#1: China

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $25.3 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $17,759

Detail: HSBC predicts that China will overtake the U.S. in size sometime over the next 50 years as its population surges to 1.43 billion. Even with the increase, its income per capita will remain outside the top 50 nations.

Source: HSBC

by AntiWorldNews 


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